Basketball and gambling have more in common than you might think. In order to be successful at pursuit, it helps to have an established system. In the case of basketball, obtaining a reliable offensive strategy that you’re able to roll out each game irrespective of the matchup gives you a leg-up. Think Mike D’Antoni’s free-flowing space-and-pace attack or Jerry Sloan’s nearly unbeatable pick-and-roll offense from the 1980s and 90s.
When it comes to betting, you can acquire the exact same type of benefit by having a closely defined set of rules that you can use to every single game irrespective of who is on the court.
Fortunately, you do not need to create your own betting strategy from scratch. There are already several recognized strategies which you can try on for size when you lay down wagers on your favourite teams, and there’s no rule against pilfering in the playbooks of individuals who arrived before you. We’ve included some of the most reliable systems and money-management strategies below, together with insights on the best way best to use them. When coupled with an understanding of the sport, these systems might help turn rookie betters to all-stars.
The High Totals System
Few strategies are easier to learn and apply than the Top Totals System created by Allen Moody, a sports-betting professional and the author of Becoming a Winning Gambler and Sports Betting Basics. Moody found that sportsbooks often underestimate game levels for NBA non-conference games, and started taking the over on all matches with an over/under of 220 total points. It is a simple strategy, but it paid off handsomely as he had been correct 63.5% of the time for all games meeting that standards from 2004-05 to 2008-09.
Those sorts of games were rarities a decade ago, but they’re getting more common today as teams push the speed and drain more three-pointers. Back in 2004-05, NBA teams scored a mean of 97.2 points each match. That number jumped to 100.0 in 2008-09 and climbed all the way to 105.6 in 2016-17. Sportsbooks have become savvy for this trend, but there’s still value to be seen by taking the above in games with particularly high total-point projections.
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